East Tennessee Weather for Knoxville, Chattanooga, Bristol, Crossville, Maryville, and the Smoky Mountains
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East Tennessee Storm Team
The East Tennessee Storm Team exists to provide accurate weather forecasts and to provide up to the minute severe weather coverage. We do this to keep you ahead of the storm. This means we are commited to help keep you safe when severe weather threatens. We were founded in April 2011, on the heels of the historical tornado outbreak that tore through Alabama and Eastern Tennessee. We are comprised of 3 team members: Chief Meteorologist Bob Becker, Meteorologist Jeremy Buckles, and Forecaster/Storm Tracker Josh Marler.
My Winter Forecast
My personal take on the winter forecast...
Looking at current trends, it appears that the early part of winter may be slightly warmer than normal with near normal precipitation. This would likely lead to slightly below normal snowfall, but this is very difficult to predict. The La Niña pattern means a lesser chance of precipitation in the Southeast United States and a continued drought in Texas.
However, La Niña is not the only controller of our weather here in East Tennessee. One of the strong factors in the cooler, stormier winter last year was the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index. During the winter of 2010-2011, the NAO was often negative (between -0.5 and -1.5) which brings more troughing in the jet stream and thus "spills" more cold air into the Eastern United States. This also can allow storms to strengthen coming up the East Coast and threaten the eastern part of the country. For this reason, I believe the NAO is the chief factor that will determine if we have a cooler, warmer, wetter, or drier winter since the La Niña pattern gives us equal chances of warm/cold and wet/dry weather here in East Tennessee.
The current and forecast NAO is very uncertain, but the NAO has been trending positive over the past month or two after a long period of time with negative conditions. If this positive trend continues, it would mean warmer conditions with lower chances of snowfall during the November and early December time period. We will continue to monitor conditions throughout the winter.
As a sidenote, remember that seasonal outlooks are based on averages and trends. Winter storms can still occur with dangerous conditions, and these storms are often difficult for anyone to predict more than 7-10 days out. We here at the East Tennessee Storm Team will always monitor these situations and keep you informed!
-Meteorologist Jeremy Buckles
Looking at current trends, it appears that the early part of winter may be slightly warmer than normal with near normal precipitation. This would likely lead to slightly below normal snowfall, but this is very difficult to predict. The La Niña pattern means a lesser chance of precipitation in the Southeast United States and a continued drought in Texas.
However, La Niña is not the only controller of our weather here in East Tennessee. One of the strong factors in the cooler, stormier winter last year was the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index. During the winter of 2010-2011, the NAO was often negative (between -0.5 and -1.5) which brings more troughing in the jet stream and thus "spills" more cold air into the Eastern United States. This also can allow storms to strengthen coming up the East Coast and threaten the eastern part of the country. For this reason, I believe the NAO is the chief factor that will determine if we have a cooler, warmer, wetter, or drier winter since the La Niña pattern gives us equal chances of warm/cold and wet/dry weather here in East Tennessee.
The current and forecast NAO is very uncertain, but the NAO has been trending positive over the past month or two after a long period of time with negative conditions. If this positive trend continues, it would mean warmer conditions with lower chances of snowfall during the November and early December time period. We will continue to monitor conditions throughout the winter.
As a sidenote, remember that seasonal outlooks are based on averages and trends. Winter storms can still occur with dangerous conditions, and these storms are often difficult for anyone to predict more than 7-10 days out. We here at the East Tennessee Storm Team will always monitor these situations and keep you informed!
-Meteorologist Jeremy Buckles
Thank You
Thank you for visiting this website, and I hope that it has been useful to you. For all of the support and encouragement that I have always received, thank you very much; it means a lot. I will continue to look out for the people of Loudon County, the State of Tennessee, and the United States of America.
To contact me, please email me below.
